By Chris Patterson
KINGSTON, Jamaica, (JIS) – The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) is reporting an estimated 7.5 percent decline in economic performance for the October to December 2025 quarter, compared with the corresponding period in 2024.
PIOJ director general, Dr Wayne Henry, explained that the out-turn was largely influenced by the effects of Category five hurricane Melissa, which caused widespread destruction through gale-force winds, storm surge, intense rainfall, flooding, and landslides.
“These shocks negatively impacted the performance of all industries, particularly agriculture, forestry and fishing; accommodation and food services activities, which captures most tourism activities; transport and storage; and electricity, water supply, and waste management,” he pointed out.
Dr Henry noted that the December 2025 quarter out-turn represents the sharpest quarterly decline since July to September 2020, when the economy was severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.
The update was provided during the Institute’s quarterly hybrid media briefing on March 3. Dr Henry reported that the goods-producing industry is estimated to have contracted by 9.3 percent, reflecting lower output across all four subsectors. Agriculture, forestry and fishing declined by 12.6 percent; mining and quarrying by 37.3 percent; manufacturing by 7.8 percent; and construction by 3.5 percent.
Meanwhile, the services Industry is estimated to have contracted by 6.9 percent compared with the corresponding quarter of 2024, reflecting reduced real value added across all nine service subsectors.
Transport and storage declined by 13.6 percent; accommodation and food service activities by 12 percent; education, health and other services by 11.5 percent; electricity, water supply and waste management also by 11.5 percent; real estate and business services by 7.6 percent; information and communication by seven percent; wholesale and retail trade by 4.9 percent; public administration and defence by 0.4 percent; and finance and insurance activities by 0.2 percent.
Dr Henry emphasised, however, that the 7.5 percent contraction is, nonetheless, better than the initial projections made immediately after hurricane Melissa, when forecasts anticipated a decline in the range of 11 to 13 percent.
“This is attributed to the better-than-initially-anticipated out-turn of some industries, partially reflecting the resilience and industriousness of businesses and individuals in rebuilding following the shock.”
Dr Henry further indicated that output for the January to March 2026 quarter is projected to contract within the range of four to six percent. For fiscal year 2025/26, the economy is expected to decline by between one and two percent.
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